בוקר טוב
הצפי להצטרפות היואן הסיני לסל מטבעות הרזרבה גובר. הודעת הבנק המרכזי של סין מהבוקר הפותחת לבנקים הזרים את האפשרות לפתוח חשבונות סליקה ביואן ובסין לצד החלטות בדבר ביטול תקרת הילד למשפחה ועוד תורמים להערכה כי ההצטרפות קרבה. ראה סקירה מהבוקר הצופה כי חודש נובמבר הוא פוטנציאל להכרזה…..
CNY On Track For SDR Inclusion, Never Mind The Details
Renewed CNH-CNY convergence within a week of the PBOC's latest interest rate/RRR cuts should keep the yuan on track for reserve currency status when the IMF board reviews its SDR basket in November. That the USD/CNH drop occurred amid strong signs of official action and a USD/CNY capped by lower-than-expected PBOC fixes is likely to be overlooked. Similarly, Beijing's measures to curb outflows/CNY depreciation and discussion of a Tobin tax will probably be eclipsed by a laundry list of market liberalization moves – removal of the deposit rate cap being the latest. J.P. Morgan analysts note that with the political atmosphere turning more positive on CNY SDR inclusion, the decision will largely rest on the IMF's technical assessment, which is also likely to be positive. They expect CNY to be given a much higher weight in the SDR than GBP or JPY but see little immediate impact given that any reserve reallocation tied to the decision would already have begun. Eventually, yuan internationalization will hinge on China's economic performance and the evolution of its capital account, they say. As recent history shows, that process is likely to be a bumpy one.
